← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sun, Jun 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valladolid win | 79% | 80% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 13% | 7.00 | fair |
| Guadalajara win | 8% | 7% | 13.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valladolid | Guadalajara |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 338.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1653.65 | 1410.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.58 | 17.11 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| league points | 82.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.12 |
| state index | 0.78 | -0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |