← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sun, Jun 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almeria win | 81% | 75% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 16% | 9.00 | value: +43% |
| Alcoyano win | 7% | 9% | 19.00 | value: +73% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Almeria | Alcoyano |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 580.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1565.74 | 1380.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.47 | -28.92 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 67.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 0.90 |
| state index | 0.41 | -1.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |