← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sat, Jun 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Murcia win | 39% | 41% | 2.40 | fair |
| Girona win | 32% | 33% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Murcia | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 153.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| elo | 1410.27 | 1490.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.63 | 34.49 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.66 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| league points | 47.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.12 |
| state index | -0.66 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |