← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sun, May 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hercules win | 75% | 59% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 23% | 5.50 | value: +28% |
| Xerez win | 8% | 18% | 12.00 | value: +112% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hercules | Xerez |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1539.69 | 1464.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.39 | -13.87 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 68.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.23 |
| state index | -0.07 | -0.64 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |