← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sun, May 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 49% | 42% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
| Recreativo win | 25% | 29% | 3.75 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Recreativo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 147.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| elo | 1492.39 | 1471.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 56.13 | -13.79 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| league points | 45.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.15 |
| state index | 0.82 | -0.64 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |