← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sun, May 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordoba win | 76% | 53% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 25% | 6.50 | value: +64% |
| Murcia win | 9% | 21% | 12.00 | value: +157% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cordoba | Murcia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 331.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1530.95 | 1415.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.36 | -5.95 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| league points | 67.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.18 |
| state index | 0.40 | -0.71 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |