← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sun, May 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche CF win | 39% | 48% | 2.35 | value: +13% |
| Alcoyano win | 33% | 27% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Alcoyano | Elche CF |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 969.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1359.25 | 1464.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -48.58 | -25.81 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 34.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 1.35 |
| state index | -1.85 | -0.79 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |