← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sat, May 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona B win | 50% | 59% | 1.80 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.60 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 24% | 20% | 3.80 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Barcelona B | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 360.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| elo | 1503.80 | 1488.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -44.94 | 28.42 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| league points | 53.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.38 |
| state index | -0.76 | 0.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |