← Segunda División 2011-12 · Thu, May 24, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valladolid win | 77% | 59% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 26% | 6.50 | value: +68% |
| Recreativo win | 8% | 16% | 13.00 | value: +104% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valladolid | Recreativo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 328.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1650.03 | 1475.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.51 | -23.58 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| league points | 78.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.18 |
| state index | 0.87 | -0.65 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |