← Segunda División 2011-12 · Wed, May 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guadalajara win | 42% | 26% | 2.25 | fair |
| Barcelona B win | 31% | 52% | 3.20 | value: +67% ⚠ |
| Draw | 28% | 22% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guadalajara | Barcelona B |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 357.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1401.05 | 1521.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.83 | -39.88 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.40 |
| league points | 43.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.36 |
| state index | -0.90 | -0.74 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |