← Segunda División 2011-12 · Wed, May 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche CF win | 43% | 53% | 2.20 | value: +17% |
| Las Palmas win | 29% | 23% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Elche CF | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 965.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1476.50 | 1476.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.02 | -1.24 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 54.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.33 |
| state index | -0.84 | -0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |