← Segunda División 2011-12 · Wed, May 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hercules win | 52% | 55% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.60 | fair |
| Alcoyano win | 21% | 21% | 4.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Alcoyano | Hercules |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1374.14 | 1524.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -47.37 | -16.36 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.93 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 34.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 1.67 |
| state index | -1.60 | -0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |