← Segunda División 2011-12 · Tue, May 22, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordoba win | 72% | 54% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 27% | 5.50 | value: +49% |
| Cartagena win | 10% | 19% | 10.00 | value: +92% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cordoba | Cartagena |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 326.00 | 245.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| elo | 1523.66 | 1386.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.84 | 24.98 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| league points | 64.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 0.87 |
| state index | 0.28 | -0.51 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |