← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sun, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Numancia win | 41% | 41% | 2.30 | fair |
| Barcelona B win | 31% | 34% | 3.10 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Numancia | Barcelona B |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 719.00 | 354.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1485.32 | 1538.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.45 | -17.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| league points | 51.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 1.39 |
| state index | -0.53 | -0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |