← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sat, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal B win | 41% | 35% | 2.30 | fair |
| Recreativo win | 31% | 34% | 3.10 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal B | Recreativo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1473.43 | 1488.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.34 | -32.72 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| league points | 49.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.21 |
| state index | -0.03 | -0.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |