← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sat, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huesca win | 37% | 48% | 2.50 | value: +20% |
| Cartagena win | 34% | 22% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huesca | Cartagena |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 688.00 | 242.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| elo | 1463.21 | 1392.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.57 | 28.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 45.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 0.89 |
| state index | -0.16 | -0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |