← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sat, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche CF win | 51% | 69% | 1.91 | value: +32% ⚠ |
| Draw | 26% | 19% | 3.50 | fair |
| Guadalajara win | 22% | 12% | 4.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Elche CF | Guadalajara |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 961.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1490.90 | 1386.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.32 | -24.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| league points | 54.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.05 |
| state index | -0.67 | -1.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |