← Segunda División 2011-12 · Wed, May 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recreativo win | 37% | 46% | 2.50 | value: +14% |
| Cordoba win | 35% | 23% | 2.63 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Recreativo | Cordoba |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 320.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1499.44 | 1528.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.89 | -1.66 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| league points | 46.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.65 |
| state index | -0.34 | -0.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |