← Segunda División 2011-12 · Wed, May 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 58% | 54% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.00 | fair |
| Guadalajara win | 18% | 22% | 5.50 | value: +19% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guadalajara | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 685.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1396.02 | 1630.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.81 | 16.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| league points | 40.00 | 72.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.95 |
| state index | -0.74 | 0.63 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |