← Segunda División 2011-12 · Wed, May 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cartagena win | 46% | 37% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
| Xerez win | 27% | 35% | 3.50 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cartagena | Xerez |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 239.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1392.41 | 1457.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.94 | 11.23 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 33.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.22 |
| state index | -0.19 | -0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |