← Segunda División 2011-12 · Wed, May 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valladolid win | 38% | 34% | 2.40 | fair |
| Barcelona B win | 33% | 41% | 2.80 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Barcelona B | Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 350.00 | 320.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1547.75 | 1635.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.96 | 15.73 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| league points | 53.00 | 72.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.95 |
| state index | 0.13 | 0.82 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |