← Segunda División 2011-12 · Wed, May 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcoyano win | 41% | 39% | 2.30 | fair |
| Murcia win | 32% | 34% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Alcoyano | Murcia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1396.17 | 1411.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.20 | -23.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 34.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.16 |
| state index | -0.88 | -1.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |