← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sun, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valladolid win | 52% | 51% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
| Hercules win | 21% | 23% | 5.00 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valladolid | Hercules |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 317.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1639.07 | 1558.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.87 | 54.95 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 2.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| league points | 71.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.97 | 1.78 |
| state index | 1.11 | 1.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |