← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sat, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 40% | 43% | 2.30 | fair |
| Numancia win | 30% | 31% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Numancia | RC Deportivo La Coruña |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 711.00 | 377.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1476.16 | 1643.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.96 | 1.36 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.60 |
| league points | 48.00 | 76.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 2.11 |
| state index | -0.73 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |