← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sat, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Murcia win | 47% | 57% | 2.00 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 29% | 23% | 3.25 | fair |
| Guadalajara win | 24% | 20% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Murcia | Guadalajara |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1413.90 | 1393.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.33 | -13.45 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| league points | 42.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.08 |
| state index | -0.83 | -0.83 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |