← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sat, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huesca win | 43% | 33% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 34% | 3.20 | value: +8% |
| Recreativo win | 28% | 33% | 3.40 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huesca | Recreativo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 681.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1494.43 | 1481.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.97 | -30.62 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 45.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.19 |
| state index | 0.52 | -0.65 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |