← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sat, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 52% | 56% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.40 | fair |
| Alcoyano win | 21% | 20% | 4.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Alcoyano |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 132.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1455.61 | 1409.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.60 | -6.76 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 35.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 0.94 |
| state index | 0.24 | -0.69 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |