← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sat, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almeria win | 47% | 49% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.40 | fair |
| Barcelona B win | 25% | 27% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Almeria | Barcelona B |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 558.00 | 346.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1556.27 | 1535.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.36 | -10.99 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| league points | 58.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 1.39 |
| state index | 0.12 | -0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |