← Segunda División 2011-12 · Tue, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 48% | 47% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
| Cartagena win | 24% | 24% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cartagena | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 231.00 | 677.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1373.09 | 1622.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.27 | 3.95 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 29.00 | 68.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.94 |
| state index | -0.59 | 0.54 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |