← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 43% | 48% | 2.20 | value: +6% |
| Valladolid win | 29% | 25% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Deportivo La Coruña | Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 371.00 | 310.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1645.93 | 1637.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.55 | 37.61 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| league points | 75.00 | 70.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.14 | 2.00 |
| state index | 0.61 | 1.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |