← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sat, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guadalajara win | 41% | 37% | 2.25 | fair |
| Girona win | 30% | 37% | 3.20 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guadalajara | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 125.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1413.11 | 1436.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.95 | 23.11 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| league points | 39.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 0.91 |
| state index | -0.59 | -0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |