← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sat, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona B win | 52% | 52% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.60 | fair |
| Elche CF win | 22% | 24% | 4.33 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Barcelona B | Elche CF |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 339.00 | 947.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1548.74 | 1490.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.24 | -49.15 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| league points | 50.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.43 |
| state index | 0.25 | -0.86 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |