← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valladolid win | 70% | 71% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 19% | 5.00 | fair |
| Cartagena win | 11% | 9% | 9.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valladolid | Cartagena |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 302.00 | 221.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1634.52 | 1363.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 52.51 | -26.82 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.10 |
| league points | 67.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.97 | 0.79 |
| state index | 1.35 | -1.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |