← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Numancia win | 55% | 54% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.80 | fair |
| Villarreal B win | 19% | 22% | 5.00 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Numancia | Villarreal B |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 697.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1501.00 | 1456.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.86 | 19.32 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 48.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.18 |
| state index | -0.34 | -0.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |