← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 37% | 35% | 2.50 | fair |
| Almeria win | 34% | 38% | 2.80 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Almeria | RC Deportivo La Coruña |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 544.00 | 363.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1536.54 | 1663.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.73 | 14.49 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.60 |
| league points | 54.00 | 75.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 2.21 |
| state index | -0.57 | 0.86 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |