← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hercules win | 36% | 45% | 2.60 | value: +18% |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 34% | 27% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hercules | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 660.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1530.48 | 1613.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.71 | -16.66 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 57.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 1.94 |
| state index | 0.42 | 0.46 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |