← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almeria win | 38% | 47% | 2.50 | value: +17% |
| Cartagena win | 32% | 26% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cartagena | Almeria |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 214.00 | 537.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1360.47 | 1539.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.55 | -16.95 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| league points | 25.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.61 |
| state index | -1.22 | -0.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |