← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valladolid win | 69% | 62% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 24% | 4.50 | value: +7% |
| Huesca win | 11% | 14% | 9.00 | value: +27% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valladolid | Huesca |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 288.00 | 653.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1619.50 | 1466.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 46.62 | 28.05 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| league points | 61.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 1.13 |
| state index | 1.14 | 0.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |