← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hercules win | 38% | 38% | 2.50 | fair |
| Murcia win | 32% | 32% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Murcia | Hercules |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1434.80 | 1512.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.57 | -22.23 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 39.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.69 |
| state index | -0.78 | -0.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |