← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas win | 43% | 36% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
| Recreativo win | 27% | 34% | 3.50 | value: +19% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | Recreativo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1492.70 | 1520.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.14 | -13.16 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| league points | 45.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.28 |
| state index | 0.19 | -0.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |