← Segunda División 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcoyano win | 45% | 48% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.25 | fair |
| Guadalajara win | 27% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Alcoyano | Guadalajara |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1411.37 | 1398.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.05 | -30.27 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| league points | 30.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.03 |
| state index | -0.58 | -1.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |