← Segunda División 2010-11 · Sat, Jun 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 62% | 49% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 27% | 4.20 | value: +14% |
| Cartagena win | 15% | 23% | 7.00 | value: +64% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | Cartagena |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 338.00 | 3.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1495.31 | 1436.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.06 | -36.01 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| league points | 64.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.37 |
| state index | -0.96 | -0.93 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |