← Segunda División 2010-11 · Sat, May 21, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salamanca win | 51% | 41% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
| Cartagena win | 23% | 31% | 4.50 | value: +40% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Salamanca | Cartagena |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1395.31 | 1463.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.32 | 0.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 42.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.44 |
| state index | -0.19 | -0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |