← Segunda División 2010-11 · Sat, May 21, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordoba win | 42% | 38% | 2.25 | fair |
| Ponferradina win | 30% | 31% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ponferradina | Cordoba |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1356.92 | 1468.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.27 | -5.76 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| league points | 29.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 1.26 |
| state index | -1.37 | -0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |