← Segunda División 2010-11 · Mon, May 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche CF win | 62% | 56% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.00 | fair |
| Villarreal B win | 14% | 19% | 6.50 | value: +24% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Elche CF | Villarreal B |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 592.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1561.47 | 1399.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.19 | -56.23 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 63.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.66 | 1.24 |
| state index | 0.73 | -1.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |