← Segunda División 2010-11 · Sun, May 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xerez win | 41% | 57% | 2.25 | value: +28% ⚠ |
| Salamanca win | 31% | 19% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Xerez | Salamanca |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1496.63 | 1404.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.32 | 36.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 54.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.11 |
| state index | -0.00 | -0.08 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |