← Segunda División 2010-11 · Sat, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Numancia win | 64% | 62% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.20 | fair |
| Ponferradina win | 13% | 15% | 7.50 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Numancia | Ponferradina |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 347.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1454.61 | 1367.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.67 | 0.14 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 49.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 0.76 |
| state index | -0.46 | -1.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |