← Segunda División 2010-11 · Thu, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 52% | 52% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.30 | fair |
| Elche CF win | 20% | 23% | 4.75 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | Elche CF |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 315.00 | 588.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1581.31 | 1548.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.92 | 11.23 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 72.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.95 | 1.62 |
| state index | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |