← Segunda División 2010-11 · Thu, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas win | 41% | 43% | 2.25 | fair |
| Cartagena win | 31% | 31% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | Cartagena |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1436.22 | 1468.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.99 | -21.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 44.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.43 |
| state index | -0.29 | -0.68 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |