← Segunda División 2010-11 · Sat, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cartagena win | 59% | 64% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.75 | fair |
| Ponferradina win | 15% | 13% | 6.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cartagena | Ponferradina |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1472.66 | 1359.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.30 | -4.34 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| league points | 52.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 0.75 |
| state index | -0.48 | -1.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |